Clark County is growing. Our community needs to improve decision-making skills. In this letter to the editor, I’m asking local news outlets to become super-intelligence gatherers and I’m asking local politicians to become super-decision makers. I’m asking local voters to become super-voters. This does not cost any money. Fortune favors the prepared mind. If we elect prepared minds, Clark County will share in their fortune.
There are four steps in decision making.
The first step is gathering evidence. Joe-citizen gathers evidence from the news, from church, from commercials. Super-deciders, on the other hand, need intelligence operatives. Super-intelligence gatherers will tell you what is confirmed, relevant, and important, rather than what is merely interesting. I’m asking the Clark County news outlets to report facts that are so entangled with reality that they can’t be brushed aside by close scrutiny. Gold, not glitter. Facts, not spin.
What is a super-intelligence gatherer? In this context it would be a journalist that sets aside tribe, that sets aside agenda and that thinks like a scientist. A super-intelligence gatherer doesn’t just report honest facts. The super-intelligence gatherer reports facts along with an estimate of how confirmed those facts are, where those facts are relevant and how important the facts are to local leadership.
The second step in decision making is problem solving. Joe-citizen asks for advice from buddies. Super-deciders, on the other hand, need access to subject matter experts in the community. Clark County news outlets must become so trustworthy that local subject matter experts will feel safe giving interviews.
During this second step, super-deciders have to fight their instincts, must struggle to put solutions over tribe. Super-deciders must modestly bow to the expert opinion. Subject matter experts don’t, however, make the decision. Problem solvers are offering solutions, not making solutions.
The third step in decision making is forecasting. Joe-citizen, focused on now, usually skips this step. Super-deciders, on the other hand, might want to hire super-forecasters or to become a super-forecaster themselves. If you are wondering, the formula for super-forecasting is deceptively simple. Here it is: [New belief about the future] = [Prior belief about the future] modified by [high quality evidence]. In practice this formula is not easy to use correctly. Artificial intelligence systems will probably be the super-forecasters of the future.
The final step of decision making is to make the decision. Joe-citizen decides at the last possible minute, leaving little time to implement the decision. This is the cause of the old Army saying “hurry up and wait.” Super-deciders need to make the decision efficiently, leaving maximum time for followers to carry out orders. That being said, a good super-decider doesn’t fall in love with the first decision. A good super-decider takes five more minutes to prepare an even better decision.
When we citizens choose who to vote for in the upcoming elections, we should prioritize leadership over “likeability.” I’m asking our community leaders to become super-decision makers. That won’t happen if we voters prefer fantasy. This time let’s all prepare ourselves to become super voters.
