Let me begin by saying that I have no association with the proposed Kalama methanol plant.
Methanol is used as antifreeze, solvent, fuel, gasoline additive and as a feedstock for other chemicals. In 2013 the worldwide consumption of methanol was 59 million metric tons. The 2023 demand is estimated to be 106 million metric tons.
The chemical formula for methanol is CH3OH, and methanol produced in China, Europe, Africa or Kalama will always be the same.
There is a life cycle for commodities like methanol. When methanol demand exceeds production the sales price rises. Once the methanol sale price exceeds the new plant production cost new plants are built to meet the increased demand. Eventually, the production from the new plants, or an economic slowdown, causes the sale price of the methanol to drop. The price drop results in the shutdown of the higher cost and least efficient plants. The shutdown of the high cost/low-efficiency plants eventually brings the methanol demand and supply back into balance. When the demand for methanol again increases, the price increases and the cycle begins again.
Given the future demand for methanol, a new methanol plant will be built somewhere in the world.
I am a retired chemical engineer and spent most of my working career in the fertilizer industry, mostly associated with the production of ammonia. The process for producing ammonia is very similar to the process for producing methanol, so I am familiar with the safety and training requirements that will be required of plants such as this built in the United States. OSHA and the EPA have stringent regulations that will require that the plant is operated safely and efficiently, and per their website, NWIW has committed to mitigating 100% of the plant’s associated greenhouse gas emissions.
Furthermore, based on what I have read, if the methanol plant is built in Kalama it will be a very efficient plant with the lowest possible carbon dioxide emissions. Given that methanol plants will be built to meet the worldwide demand, if the plant is not built in Kalama, other plants will be built somewhere until the demand is satisfied. The other plants may well be built in countries that do not meet our carbon dioxide, environmental, or safety standards.
Existing pipelines allow methane to be shipped wherever needed across essentially all of North America, and methane export plants are currently under construction on the Gulf Coast.
Lastly, any methane produced but not consumed by the Kalama plant may well be liquified and shipped overseas.
The Kalama plant will provide safe, good-paying jobs created for our local citizens.
