The estimated cost to replace the aging Interstate 5 Bridge is in, with a high-end range for the project estimated to be $2.7 billion more than numbers from two years ago.
On Dec. 9, the Interstate Bridge Replacement Program (IBRP) announced its recently-completed cost estimate put the project cost between $5 billion to $7.5 billion, with about $6 billion being the most likely cost.
The estimate is based on the “locally preferred alternative,” a high-level conceptual design completed earlier this year. A previous estimate in 2020 based in large part on the failed Columbia River Crossing project had a high-end estimate of $4.8 billion.
Inflation pushes cost up
During a meeting of the Joint Oregon-Washington Legislative Action Committee on Dec. 14, Frank Green, IBRP’s assistant program administrator, said inflation since 2020 has been a major factor in the higher cost estimate.
“We’re in a time where we see really high inflation rates right now,” Green said.
A lack of workers in the construction industry alongside other projects that compete for contracts has also exacerbated the situation, he added.
Inflation was included in the 2020 estimate, but it wasn’t at the level the country experienced in the intervening months.
“We’ve seen a significant difference since 2020 with what’s been going on in the construction industry,” Green said.
The program’s cost estimate was based on a process the Washington State Department of Transportation goes through on all projects that cost more than $100 million, Green said. The estimate is based on the timing of construction and utilizes experts who identify risks to the project’s completion.
Green said the high end of the estimated range would happen if the project is delayed by a year or more from its current timeline.
The project has already secured $1.2 billion, Intestate Bridge Replacement Program Financial Structures Lead Brent Baker said. Another $1 billion is anticipated from the Oregon Legislature, after Washington’s lawmakers approved their own $1 billion this year.
At the current point in the financial aspect of the project, Baker said the project anticipates federal grant funding from $860 million to $1.6 billion, depending on if the project can secure the grants. Financial analysis also put toll funding at about $1.25 billion to $1.6 billion, though more in-depth research into tolling will be conducted through 2023.
Baker also addressed an economic impact analysis on the project which looks at the effects it will have on the region. That analysis shows an estimated $11.7 billion in economic activity over the length of the project, which includes direct spending on the project alongside indirect effects.
The analysis shows the direct project construction employment of 18,900 “person-year” jobs, or the equivalent of one job for one year, and a total gross employment of 43,700. Baker said the impact analysis is specifically for the course of the project.
The cost estimate is the “first step” in the overall financial plan, IBRP’s Assistant Program Administrator Ray Mabey said. Mabey said completing the project’s federal environmental review on schedule is key to keeping the costs lower. Other issues include potential legal challenges, a delay in receiving grants and changes in the scope of the project.
More lanes on the bridge considered
The project is currently in the first phase of an environmental review, Interstate Bridge Replacement Program Administrator Greg Johnson said. Project staff hopes to have a draft review document ready for public comment by late summer or early fall.
As part of the current phase, Johnson said project staff will look at the addition of more auxiliary lanes to the bridge over the river. The locally preferred alternative features a single auxiliary lane in both directions. The lanes connect from on and offramps to allow space for merging.
Pushes for more auxiliary lanes on the bridge have led staff to revisit the possibility of adding more, Johnson said.
“One of the things that we recognized is that we were going to be sent back to square one if we did not investigate the controversy surrounding two auxiliary lanes in each direction,” Johnson said.
Three options that will be studied include keeping the status quo, having two auxiliary lanes in each direction, and a third which would allow for shoulder usage to create an additional auxiliary lane at peak hours, Johnson said. Staff hopes to have the results from the study ready so they can present them in March.
Johnson added project staff is still in conversations with the U.S. Coast Guard over a bridge permit. Although the project doesn’t need the permit until 2026, he hopes to have any issues about the bridge’s height resolved over the summer months. The key issue is discrepancies in the bridge’s height to allow for water traffic.
Light rail
The conversation at the meeting touched on the bridge project’s plan to bring light rail transit up from Portland and into Vancouver. Washington State Sen. Lynda Wilson, R-Vancouver, brought up C-Tran’s concerns over the operation and maintenance of light rail in Clark County.
“That’s a very large concern here,” Wilson said.
Green said there is still more work to be done to determine how light rail operation will work in the expansion area. He said the project has planned a series of workshops with transit partners to hammer out the details.
Wilson also questioned the addition of “Park and Ride” areas along the light rail lines, saying those areas in Washington are barely occupied.
Johnson said looking into Park and Rides keeps the project competitive for grant funding from the Federal Transit Administration. He noted those spots are becoming less desirable in urban areas.
“If it is a marginal amount and it does not move the needle, I’m sure we will take those off the table,” Johnson said.
Project research shows an expected reduction of 36,000 metric tons of greenhouse gasses per year based on an estimated 11,000 new daily transit riders. Wilson doesn’t believe the number of new riders will be realized.
“Transit riding is going down, so I don’t know how we’re going to wind up with 11,000 new (riders),” Wilson said, adding later, “I think this is pie in the sky in order to justify having this light rail come over the bridge.”
The project’s current schedule has its groundbreaking scheduled for late 2025 to early 2026. Johnson said any delays in the process will likely lead to a more expensive bridge build.
“The most important thing we can do to limit cost escalation on this project is to stay on schedule, do smart things and manage risk,” Johnson said.
