Clark County’s periodic update of its comprehensive growth management plan continues to develop as the county council considers how many jobs will come to the jurisdiction in the next few decades.
During a work session July 12, the Clark County Council heard from county staff and an economist with the state Employment Security Department. They convened to discuss employment projections for the county through 2045, another step in the county’s review of its long-range land use planning.
Based on an estimated number of residents per household, the current employment projection has 269,000 jobs in Clark County by 2045. To meet that goal, the county would need 88,100 new jobs in the 20-year timeframe to hit the jobs per household target.
Scott Bailey, regional labor economist for the state Employment Security Department covering Southwest Washington, presented data assuming one job in the county per household. That ratio was greater than the current reality of Clark County, as roughly a third of the county works on the other side of the Columbia River, which has been the case for decades, he said.
Bailey explained that the ratio would require more land zoned commercial and industrial. That level would allow for a diversified tax base that would support public services better than having a greater amount of residential land.
“Residential property tax does not pay for itself in terms of the services needed,” Bailey said.
Another “wild card” for the projection is the amount of residents working remotely, Bailey said. The COVID-19 pandemic showed what the maximum amount of jobs could be done in a work-from-home setup.
“If somebody was going to be able to work remotely, they were,” Bailey said.
The number of residents working remotely or in a hybrid setup has changed little in the past year, he said, showing a potential point of stability.
Councilor Gary Medvigy said although office space vacancies were seen across the U.S., from his perspective, it didn’t seem to be as much of an issue in Clark County.
“At least what I’m hearing, is we still have pressure on building and filling office buildings,” Medvigy said.
Bailey wasn’t sure repurposing of office space to other uses would be cost-effective should the vacancies become a problem.
“It may just be time for demand to catch up with supply,” Bailey said.
Climate change was another factor to take into account, Bailey said. Those impacts could dictate how many people can be accommodated sustainably.
“Those impacts are going to get more and more serious going forward,” Bailey said.
Overall, Clark County’s economic outlook is one of the better ones in Washington, Bailey said.
“The local labor market, all things considered, is in pretty good shape right now,” Bailey said. Clark County was second to only Adams County in post-pandemic job growth.
The employment projection follows a population projection the council voted on back in May. That projection is a roughly 1.4% annual increase, with the county projected to have about 718,000 population in 2045.
Unlike for the population projection, the county doesn’t have to plan for a specific number of jobs, Jose Alvarez, a planner for the county, said. Staff did recommend going with the Employment Security Department’s projection.
The Clark County Council will have a public hearing on the employment projection during their Aug. 1 meeting.
