The Battle Ground School District is expecting an enrollment spike anywhere from 1,535 to 2,735 students over the next decade, based on a recent Enrollment Forecast Analysis prepared for the district by E.D. Hovee & Company, an independent economic and development service.
"After nearly a decade of stable to declining enrollment due in large part to the Great Recession, the Battle Ground School District appears to be poised for renewed enrollment growth driven by a resurgent residential development," the report states, which the district released the results of last week with less than two weeks until the Feb. 13 bond vote.
According to the district, the report examines the following:
• trends in residential development, enrollment, and demographics (including birth rates)
• enrollment history
• current developments in the district
• developable land assets located within the district
• population data from a private firm
• 2000 and 2010 U.S. Census data
• county birth rate data
If the district was to reach the higher end of the spectrum, 2,735 new students by 2027, it would be a 21-percent enrollment increase, and would bump the district total from 13,117 to 15,852.
"This report confirms for us what the Facilities Improvement Team heard during the planning process for the bond: that our District will continue to see a surge in enrollment growth for the next 10 years and beyond," said Mark Ross, district superintendent, in a statement. "The report will also help guide our projections for student growth that are critical in future budgeting processes."
Specifically, the report predicts Laurin will have the most growth amongst middle schools, with an increase at Chief Umtuch, Pleasant Valley and Tukes Valley as well. Among primary schools, Glenwood Heights is expected to have the most growth, jumping from 378 to 445 students. Captain Strong, Pleasant Valley, and Tukes Valley Primary were also named among schools most likely to see spikes.
General growth
Along with projected student growth, the analysis also predicts continued general-population growth among district residents.
In 2017, the district’s 71,900 residents accounted for approximately 15.3 percent of the Clark County population, according to the analysis, which is up from 13.6 percent in 2000. Over the next decade, the analysis predicts overall growth anywhere from 9,700 to 16,802.
According to the analysis, the birth rate is expected to increase or at least stabilize through 2025 after a decline during the recession.
Increased development
As of 2017, the analysis reports, 28,300 housing units existed within the district and 2,350 are pending development.
The analysis points out that under current zoning, Clark County Vacant Building Lands Model has a remaining capacity for the equivalent of 16,851 single-family housing units.
District’s solution
Next week the district will know, for time being, if a $224.9 million construction and renovation bond will be a part of their solution to the predicted growth. The bond would span over 21 years, and include $61.6 million in matching funds from the state.
Along with some smaller projects, the bond would include the following:
• Building a new primary and middle school located in the southeast corner of the district, using land purchased in 2016 on the west side of Northeast 152nd Ave. between 99th and 119th streets.
• Developing an Alternative Learning Experience campus on another plot of land currently owned by the district located on the south side of Northeast 199th St. just east of 72nd Ave. The CAM Academy, which currently operates out of a leased building, would be based at this campus.
• Replace both Pleasant Valley schools, primary and middle, which share a campus and were built in 1977; replace Glenwood Heights Primary and Laurin Middle School, which also share a campus and were built in built in 1966.
• Some building replacement at Prairie High School and gymnasium 300 building renovations at Amboy Middle School
